Go figure.
One thing that always bugged me about some long running MMOs, such as WoW, is the underestimation by the game creators for the impact of war on society.
If you've played WoW long enough, you know the basics of some aspects of the game: 90% of the Blood Elves were wiped out by Arthas' invasion of Quel'thas, and a similar number of Draenei were killed in Outland by the Legion-enhanced Orcs.* Even not taking into account the Forsaken, many of the human kingdoms of the North were wiped out by a combination of the Second War and the Plague/Third War. And that doesn't even take into account the impact of years of fighting the various Troll tribes, the persecution of the Tauren by the Centaur, and that the current Horde --centered around the Frostwolf Clan-- is but a small fraction of the Orcs.
All of this constant fighting does add up over time.
As I'd mentioned back when I was examining the timeline for the pre-WoW Azeroth, this constant state of war is akin to the Thirty Years' War, when entire regions of Europe were depopulated. And believe me, when Blizzard tosses about "90% of the Blood Elves/Draenei were killed", we're talking depopulation.
So where is the population to continue the "war" part of World of Warcraft coming from?
***
I'm pretty sure I know how sex and child rearing work --I can at least claim some experience in this area-- so I know how long it takes for you to first have kids and then get them to adulthood. When you factor in the differences between modern society and, say, a part-steampunk part-high fantasy world, you're still going to have to wait an average of about 15-16 years between generations. And really, you need a time of (relative) peace in order for populations to even start to rebound.
So when I saw the video by Michael "Belluar" Bell about some suppositions about how Retail WoW in the Lordaeron areas could pan out, I was... skeptical, to say the least.
The suppositions, among them the return of the Scarlets from Northrend and who will the Humans in the Plaguelands support raise an eyebrow to begin with, but when Michael starts talking about the Blood Elves from Quel'thalas marching south (starting roughly at 19:30) into Lordaeron, my first reaction is "Oh? Exactly what army is freaking left for them to do that?"
I mean, has anybody been paying attention to all of the death and attrition since WoW was created?
For historical precedent, look at Henry V's campaign into France that ended at the Battle of Agincourt.** Henry has roughly 12,000 men with him when he began the campaign, and lost at least a quarter of them besieging Harfleur. As the campaign came to a head at Agincourt, Henry's army of roughly 8000 was confronted by a French army that outnumbered him by anywhere from 2:1 to 5:1. (Accounts vary, and at least Encyclopedia Britannica acknowledges that.)
The thing to remember here is that neither England nor France had standing armies, so they had to levy their armies every time they wanted to fight. That means any leader wanting to fight would be drawing from the populace that would ordinarily be the engine of your economy and the heart of your people. If you fight long enough, you stunt the growth of both through attrition.
Now, take those population and army numbers and slash them by 90%, which is what happened to the Blood Elves and Draenei. (And likely any Humans still left in the North.) That's far more than what the Black Death did in Europe, mind you, although in spots entire villages were wiped out by the Plague.
The thing is, constant warfare is a net drain on your population. You need periods of peace to rebuild and your population to recover. And really, a few years here and there ain't gonna cut it. So call me skeptical when I hear about all these grand campaigns that Blizz has prepared for Azeroth. Unless you want Azeroth to turn into the equivalent of Easter Island, that is.
#Blaugust2023
*Obviously, these percentages have no impact on toon population, given the popularity of both races in-game.
**For reference, The UK's National Archives article on it is similar in numbers to what I'd found at other places.
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